Can Self-Driving Cars Influence The Demand For Metro Trains?
Most people assume that self-driving cars are not likely to become common even though the technology is already there. There is no legitimate reason why this should take very long. Self-driving taxis recently made their debut in Singapore in August by offering free rides to the public. So this is very much possible, and what stops this from becoming a reality is political constraints.
The Singapore government wants a fully self-driving taxi fleet in the country by 2018, to lower road congestion, because the human-driven cars usually carry less people than they possibly can. This is interesting, because Singapore is known for uncongested roads, despite being a fairly dense country. The start-up that organised the drive in Singapore also thinks that self-driving cars can lead to smaller roads and smaller car parking spaces.
But, much of the debate on self-driving cars have been around how self-driving cars will change cars. The answers is, yes, but, not just cars also, other modes of transportation, too. For instance, the Delhi Metro is not profitable on most routes, except in peak hours. So, if self-driving cars become popular in Delhi, this can have a huge impact on the profitability of one of the fastest modes of public transport in the national capital. In peak hours, people may still prefer to travel in the Metro because of the congestion on roads. But, off peak hours, and in areas where population density is not very high, people may still prefer to use self-driving cars.
Even if self-driving cars lead to a modest decline in the number of people who use the Delhi Metro, this can make it financial unviable, for example. Authorities can decide to operate it nevertheless, but it may become a financial liability. This is because the cost of building and operating Metro lines is very high. As the cost of running Metro trains is very high, the revenues should be high enough to cover the fixed costs. This may become more and more unlikely when cars become more popular, even if large numbers of people still travel in the Metro. The Metro can raise the fares to remain profitable, but that will compel more people to travel in self-driving cars. The Metro can decide to lower the frequency in off-peak hours to cut costs, but lowering the frequency will lower the number of people who travel in the Metro even in peak hours. Why so? People get locked into some habits. If they notice that frequency of the Metro is low in off-peak hours, they are not likely to use this public transport even in peak hours, because they would be used to traveling in self-driving taxis.
In a few decades, this may happen, even if Metro trains remain a cheaper form of transport. Just as cars replaced trains in many prosperous countries, self-driving cars can replace trains and light rail, like the Metro.