Will Trump's America-First Policy Impact Indian Workers, Its Real Estate?

When Donald John Trump said America First, many frowned. Businesses keen to set up its headquarters in the United States, skilled workforce with H1-B visa as well as their spouses with H4 visas (and currently employed) may be a little worried.

Meanwhile, even authorities, who had previously demanded that those with H4 visas should be allowed to work, are now unclear about the fate of the job market.

Rachel Rodrigues, a 29-year-old team lead working with a software solutions company in Bengaluru was told that she may have to wait before she heads to the United States with her H1-B visa. This happened when the new US president had not even secured his position. However, the campaigns were much of an indication.

Rodrigues says: “I am uncertain. I may not want to move to the US at all. Somehow, our jobs are far more secure in India.”

Does Rodrigues voice the concerns of many like herself?

In another instance, Mehul Guha Roy and his wife are planning to invest in India, after seven whole years of stay in the US. The Roys have had a comfortable life as of now but it is the pressure from home.

Roy says: “With the recent developments, there is damp picture about our future in the US. Our relatives and parents want us back home where lucrative jobs are not so uncommon. At the moment, we are considering an investment in Chennai, where we previously worked.”

Trump's popularity among the voting mass in the US could be because of his unconventional way of appealing that he would keep the jobs safe for locals. The repeated focus on strengthening the job market meant that in a highly competitive and crowded job market, work offered to foreigners would now come under scrutiny. According to reports, it was believed that rendering those who were on H4 visas eligible to work in the US added an estimated 1,80,000 people more in an already competitive market. Every subsequent year, 55,000 more added up to this number. This could encourage their spouses, who are H1-B visa holders, to hold on to their jobs or even apply for a legal and permanent resident visa.

What's worse? Even employers in the US have expressed concern and are unclear whether they should hire H1-B and H4 visa holders.

An estimate shows that of the H1-B visa holders in Washington, 70 per cent are Indians. When a Bill was introduced by a Republican to curb the abuse of H1-B visa system, it had a major bearing on the Indian IT jobs. Companies such as Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HCL and Tata Consultancy Services reported major losses within two days. This year, the Bill was reintroduced as the Protect and Grow American Jobs Act. It seeks to bring about some changes which might be crucial:

The good news is that the Act seeks to raise the salaries of H1-B visa holders to a minimum of $1,00,000. At the moment, it is $60,000. Indians usually make for a more affordable substitute to the American workforce, and, hence if companies have to shell out more in terms of salaries, it might deter them to opt for foreign labour.

About 20,000 petitions for work could stand eliminated as the Bill may require only post-graduate degree holders or 'advanced cap' degree holders (equivalent or higher) to work in the US.

The changes to the job market in the US can directly affect India, both in terms of the jobs and real estate market. Analysts believe that the situation may not be as bad as it is made out to be but even if it is, the jobs market, especially IT and analytics, may remain tense for a while till there is clarity.

Real estate, which is going through troubled times, may see changes in the investment pattern — some ready to buy and some waiting for the final verdict.

Meanwhile, Trump has maintained India is a key strategic ally of the US.

On the bright side, Rahul Reddy, an attorney at Reddy & Neumann PC, says: “IT companies incur large expenses in filing fees, in some cases amounting to more than $7,000, plus the hassle of legal fees paid to lawyers and paperwork. Most H-1B hiring companies try to avoid hiring H-1B workers, unless they have to. Therefore, an attempt to revise the INA definition of “exempt H-1B nonimmigrant” will likely not be detrimental for any H-1B hiring companies.”